2009 Annual

For the month of January I am making available not only the latest issue of my premium newsletter, Copenhagen Confirmation, but all previous monthly issues for 2009 in a single package, for $49.95. 2009 Annual comes in at 12 issues, and 147 pages. As my monthly newsletter is generally taken by institutions, and is largely thematic in nature, most of the subjects I address are just as relevant to the year ahead, as the year behind. Given that the annual subscription is now $1560.00 (390.00 per quarter), I think I can say with some justification that this is a bargain. I am essentially discounting the current issue, and giving away the back issues for free.

Each issue of Monthly pairs a thematic essay with the latest review of global oil supply data. Also, while I do make price calls in this publication I lean towards the longer timeframe, usually 6 to 24 months. The reasoning behind this orientation is that the market is stuffed, indeed practically choking, on a class of oil analysts that address themselves to the next 30 days. I call them the 30 Day Army and our press and televised media has lapsed over the past 20 years into thinking this is “oil analysis.” It’s not. Selling a price forecast for the price of oil over the next 30 days (and in many cases 10 days) based on “inventories” at Cushing, Oklahoma is no longer relevant in a world where 60% of global oil supply (Non-OPEC) is now in well defined peak. Besides, a thematic call on coal, natural gas, and oil for the next 1-2 years is more useful.

What I’ve tried to do this year in each issue of this newsletter, in the thematic essay, is split the difference between a blog post and a white paper. I’ve addressed such subjects as oil nationalism, Nigeria, economic collapse, and the marginal utility of oil in the developing vs the developed world. You can see the Table of Contents here, for the Annual. I do address the price of oil–but more often from the standpoint of global marginal production costs, OECD inventories, and scarcity rent. While I remain of the view that global leadership on the energy problem is near zero, I do articulate a view of what will eventually happen in the nexus of coal, oil, renewables, and transport. Thus, I think my newsletter has relevance for greentech investment, and the larger issue of energy transition.


Link to order page for 2009 Annual.

Photo: Antony Gormley installation at the Southbank Centre, London.