Comments on: Down from the Highs of Happiness http://gregor.us/crisis/down-from-the-highs-of-happiness/ Energy and Economics Fri, 12 Mar 2010 16:52:33 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: infoarbitrage http://gregor.us/crisis/down-from-the-highs-of-happiness/comment-page-1/#comment-3823 infoarbitrage Fri, 12 Dec 2008 00:21:10 +0000 http://gregor.us/?p=194#comment-3823 Gregor, really nice post. Deep - and accurate - thoughts, IMHO. Prices clearly embody psychology and sentiment, which people sometimes forget when they are laser focused on their screens. There is no question that pervasive euphoria existed in the 1998-2000 period, followed by depression, hope, renewed greed and finally, comeuppance. I'm not sure if disbelief has yet run its course, as poor earnings and market volatility together with the potentially costly decoupling of economic growth and energy prices could weigh on the market for quite some time. But by viewing market action through the prism of happiness I think it allows an investor to step back, really get a handle on sentiment and to make more rational decisions than by simply looking at price alone. Gregor, really nice post. Deep – and accurate – thoughts, IMHO. Prices clearly embody psychology and sentiment, which people sometimes forget when they are laser focused on their screens. There is no question that pervasive euphoria existed in the 1998-2000 period, followed by depression, hope, renewed greed and finally, comeuppance. I'm not sure if disbelief has yet run its course, as poor earnings and market volatility together with the potentially costly decoupling of economic growth and energy prices could weigh on the market for quite some time. But by viewing market action through the prism of happiness I think it allows an investor to step back, really get a handle on sentiment and to make more rational decisions than by simply looking at price alone.

]]> By: terra210 http://gregor.us/crisis/down-from-the-highs-of-happiness/comment-page-1/#comment-3822 terra210 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 21:01:22 +0000 http://gregor.us/?p=194#comment-3822 "This further confirms my view that a collective emotional wave is washing over us. Even as we record it through something called price." <br><br>I have to first say, what a beautiful sentence. Over the past 6 years I have imagined the markets as a Dragon on whose back we all ride. (Unless we trade within the dragon...as Jonah inside the Whale). The Dragon has many parts, and not all inside are so fortunate to be part of the brain. Ideas and instruments are created, generate momentum, and the Dragon is then animated, all parts following the Dragons brain. Dragons are not lithe, but heavy and cumbersome in their ability to move and change. The new ideas are brewing, and the market has become quieter. Soon the ideas will come into being, and the movements into flight will begin once again. “This further confirms my view that a collective emotional wave is washing over us. Even as we record it through something called price.”

I have to first say, what a beautiful sentence. Over the past 6 years I have imagined the markets as a Dragon on whose back we all ride. (Unless we trade within the dragon…as Jonah inside the Whale). The Dragon has many parts, and not all inside are so fortunate to be part of the brain. Ideas and instruments are created, generate momentum, and the Dragon is then animated, all parts following the Dragons brain. Dragons are not lithe, but heavy and cumbersome in their ability to move and change. The new ideas are brewing, and the market has become quieter. Soon the ideas will come into being, and the movements into flight will begin once again.

]]> By: infoarbitrage http://gregor.us/crisis/down-from-the-highs-of-happiness/comment-page-1/#comment-247 infoarbitrage Thu, 11 Dec 2008 20:21:10 +0000 http://gregor.us/?p=194#comment-247 Gregor, really nice post. Deep - and accurate - thoughts, IMHO. Prices clearly embody psychology and sentiment, which people sometimes forget when they are laser focused on their screens. There is no question that pervasive euphoria existed in the 1998-2000 period, followed by depression, hope, renewed greed and finally, comeuppance. I'm not sure if disbelief has yet run its course, as poor earnings and market volatility together with the potentially costly decoupling of economic growth and energy prices could weigh on the market for quite some time. But by viewing market action through the prism of happiness I think it allows an investor to step back, really get a handle on sentiment and to make more rational decisions than by simply looking at price alone. Gregor, really nice post. Deep – and accurate – thoughts, IMHO. Prices clearly embody psychology and sentiment, which people sometimes forget when they are laser focused on their screens. There is no question that pervasive euphoria existed in the 1998-2000 period, followed by depression, hope, renewed greed and finally, comeuppance. I'm not sure if disbelief has yet run its course, as poor earnings and market volatility together with the potentially costly decoupling of economic growth and energy prices could weigh on the market for quite some time. But by viewing market action through the prism of happiness I think it allows an investor to step back, really get a handle on sentiment and to make more rational decisions than by simply looking at price alone.

]]> By: terra210 http://gregor.us/crisis/down-from-the-highs-of-happiness/comment-page-1/#comment-242 terra210 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 17:01:22 +0000 http://gregor.us/?p=194#comment-242 "This further confirms my view that a collective emotional wave is washing over us. Even as we record it through something called price." <br>I have to first say, what a beautiful sentence. Over the past 6 years I have imagined the markets as a Dragon on whose back we all ride. (Unless we trade within the dragon...as Jonah inside the Whale). The Dragon has many parts, and not all inside are so fortunate to be part of the brain. Ideas and instruments are created, generate momentum, and the Dragon is then animated, all parts following the Dragons brain. Dragons are not lithe, but heavy and cumbersome in their ability to move and change. The new ideas are brewing, and the market has become quieter. Soon the ideas will come into being, and the movements into flight will begin once again. “This further confirms my view that a collective emotional wave is washing over us. Even as we record it through something called price.”
I have to first say, what a beautiful sentence. Over the past 6 years I have imagined the markets as a Dragon on whose back we all ride. (Unless we trade within the dragon…as Jonah inside the Whale). The Dragon has many parts, and not all inside are so fortunate to be part of the brain. Ideas and instruments are created, generate momentum, and the Dragon is then animated, all parts following the Dragons brain. Dragons are not lithe, but heavy and cumbersome in their ability to move and change. The new ideas are brewing, and the market has become quieter. Soon the ideas will come into being, and the movements into flight will begin once again.

]]> By: Doug Williams http://gregor.us/crisis/down-from-the-highs-of-happiness/comment-page-1/#comment-241 Doug Williams Thu, 11 Dec 2008 14:05:55 +0000 http://gregor.us/?p=194#comment-241 I'm too young to really remember the great times in comparison to these not so great times but then again I've never been hungry.<br><br>But from what I can glean in my few years is that many have been taught to artifically inflate their happiness with leverage, debt, and material wealth which they could not afford. Americans, and to a lesser degree, the world-wide consumers, are now learning what is actually within reach of their wallets. Could this lead to actually lead to happier times? You know, where we realize that money isn't the root of all happiness?<br><br>Hell, to me, I think we'd all be better off with less emphasis on things and more on the people us. Perhaps the return to thrift and drift from decadence will bring us all back to that understanding. I'm too young to really remember the great times in comparison to these not so great times but then again I've never been hungry.

But from what I can glean in my few years is that many have been taught to artifically inflate their happiness with leverage, debt, and material wealth which they could not afford. Americans, and to a lesser degree, the world-wide consumers, are now learning what is actually within reach of their wallets. Could this lead to actually lead to happier times? You know, where we realize that money isn't the root of all happiness?

Hell, to me, I think we'd all be better off with less emphasis on things and more on the people us. Perhaps the return to thrift and drift from decadence will bring us all back to that understanding.

]]> By: Stuart MacDonald http://gregor.us/crisis/down-from-the-highs-of-happiness/comment-page-1/#comment-240 Stuart MacDonald Thu, 11 Dec 2008 13:56:58 +0000 http://gregor.us/?p=194#comment-240 Of course, this time period also covers Bush"s term in office. Just sayin'... Of course, this time period also covers Bush”s term in office. Just sayin'…

]]> By: gregor.us http://gregor.us/crisis/down-from-the-highs-of-happiness/comment-page-1/#comment-239 gregor.us Thu, 11 Dec 2008 13:49:35 +0000 http://gregor.us/?p=194#comment-239 He was. He intuited the moment perfectly. He was. He intuited the moment perfectly.

]]> By: Stuart MacDonald http://gregor.us/crisis/down-from-the-highs-of-happiness/comment-page-1/#comment-238 Stuart MacDonald Thu, 11 Dec 2008 13:37:56 +0000 http://gregor.us/?p=194#comment-238 Maybe when Prince said "tonight we're gonna party like it's 1999" he was right :)<br><br>As always, love your thinking Gregor.<br><br>- Stuart Maybe when Prince said “tonight we're gonna party like it's 1999″ he was right :)

As always, love your thinking Gregor.

- Stuart

]]> By: Freude Bud http://gregor.us/crisis/down-from-the-highs-of-happiness/comment-page-1/#comment-69 Freude Bud Fri, 24 Oct 2008 16:35:03 +0000 http://gregor.us/?p=194#comment-69 did you see <a href="http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/july-dec08/psolman_10-21.html">http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/july-de...</a> ?<br><br>question: if we are not headed into the "pit of disbelief"--how Dante-an!--then whither oil, in terms of that thing called price? did you see http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/july-de... ?

question: if we are not headed into the “pit of disbelief”–how Dante-an!–then whither oil, in terms of that thing called price?

]]> By: gregordotus http://gregor.us/crisis/down-from-the-highs-of-happiness/comment-page-1/#comment-68 gregordotus Fri, 24 Oct 2008 12:46:40 +0000 http://gregor.us/?p=194#comment-68 One answer is that we have to realize that we have the power to either continue with the belief system, or, we can decide to flush it down the toilet. At the moment, I think we perceive that the global financial system is acting upon us. However, I also think that capitulation occurs when the market realizes that we are in control of the system, not the other way around.<br><br>I have no advice for what to do.<br><br>The Oil Drum has a good post on Systems today:<br><a href="http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/4656">http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/4656</a> One answer is that we have to realize that we have the power to either continue with the belief system, or, we can decide to flush it down the toilet. At the moment, I think we perceive that the global financial system is acting upon us. However, I also think that capitulation occurs when the market realizes that we are in control of the system, not the other way around.

I have no advice for what to do.

The Oil Drum has a good post on Systems today:
http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/4656

]]>