Gaze Upon the Glory of Free Market Oil

40% of global oil supply is provided by OPEC, and 60% of global oil supply is provided by Non-OPEC oil producers. Russia is a Non-OPEC oil producer but if we take Russia out of that category, we are left with 44% of global supply. This sub-category, Non-OPEC ex Russia, is what I refer to as Free Market Oil. This is ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, Suncor, and countries like Brazil, The United States, Norway, the UK, Mexico and Australia. Most of this oil is extracted with the best technology, and with the help of Schlumberger, Baker-Hughes, Transocean, Weatherford, and National Oilwell Varco. You get the idea. So, let’s see how free market oil supply responded to the rise in price from 30.00 dollar oil to 150.00 dollar oil from late 2003 through the present:

Free Market Oil 2004 - 2009

Free Market Oil has dropped by over 2 mbpd (million barrels per day) since December of 2003. If your professor or your local economist or perhaps national newspaper is still pounding the table that supply always makes a response to price–even in natural resources–you might want to send them a link to this chart.

-Gregor

Graphic: Non-OPEC ex Russia, by Gregor Macdonald at www.gregor.us

  • rcunningham

    Oh, but supply did make a response to price. For a proper comparison you would need the chart showing supply had the price remained at $35/bbl over the period.

    You can't confuse “response” and “absolute increase in supply.”

    Regards,

  • rcunningham

    Oh, but supply did make a response to price. For a proper comparison you would need the chart showing supply had the price remained at $35/bbl over the period.

    You can't confuse “response” and “absolute increase in supply.”

    Regards,

  • TJGodel8

    Gregor to give your chart a better visual illustration of your point of a 2 mbpd drop since 2003 I would like to have seen a line atop the graphic line to show the decline. Also you could create another chart using the same Non-OPEC ex Russia production along with U.S. consumption.

  • TJGodel8

    Gregor to give your chart a better visual illustration of your point of a 2 mbpd drop since 2003 I would like to have seen a line atop the graphic line to show the decline. Also you could create another chart using the same Non-OPEC ex Russia production along with U.S. consumption.

  • donkus

    there isn't a shortage anywhere…so the only thing that could possibly be pushing up prices is a scarcity premium.

  • donkus

    there isn't a shortage anywhere…so the only thing that could possibly be pushing up prices is a scarcity premium.

  • http://kralizec.wordpress.com/ Kralizec

    I began a reply, but you trifle with your subject so offhandedly that I'm moved just to shun you instead.

  • http://kralizec.wordpress.com/ Kralizec

    I began a reply, but you trifle with your subject so offhandedly that I'm moved just to shun you instead.

  • gregor.us

    I actually deal with these subjects in longer format here at gregor.us, and very long format in my monthly newsletter. However, I decided there was a place for touching upon this subject in more brief form. And so, that was an intentional decision I made. It may appear as trifling.

    G

  • gregor.us

    No I don't think I need a chart of some other outcome that did not occur. But, if you think so, please do lay it out.

    G

  • gregor.us

    I actually deal with these subjects in longer format here at gregor.us, and very long format in my monthly newsletter. However, I decided there was a place for touching upon this subject in more brief form. And so, that was an intentional decision I made. It may appear as trifling.

    G

  • gregor.us

    No I don't think I need a chart of some other outcome that did not occur. But, if you think so, please do lay it out.

    G

  • MikeHerdegen

    What more need be said, Kralizec?

    Brevity isn't the same as “trifling”. The chart speaks for itself, powerfully and unfortunately profoundly.

  • MikeHerdegen

    What more need be said, Kralizec?

    Brevity isn't the same as “trifling”. The chart speaks for itself, powerfully and unfortunately profoundly.

  • anxiousmodernman

    Oh, do add the price in the next post, Gregor.

  • anxiousmodernman

    Oh, do add the price in the next post, Gregor.

  • bobsagetfanatic

    I agree. The objections to it in these comments are bafflingly bizarre. With one astounding chart and a handful of well chosen words, Gregor has shown us something critical, probably kind of cataclysmic, and highly investible.

  • bobsagetfanatic

    Stared at rc's comment for awhile trying to make sense of it and now realize he was probably supporting your beliefs. In other words, if price hadn't gone as high as it did, oil production would've crashed much harder.

    Sorry if that was already obvious to everyone. I struggled with it for awhile.

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