Mar 15 2009

El Norte: North American Oil Production

March 15, 2009

north-american-herman-moll1

Canada, United States and Mexico: A Decade of Oil Production in Mb/day

1999 Average     10.694
2000 Average     10.811
2001 Average     10.957
2002 Average     11.034
2003 Average     11.358
2004 Average     11.200
2005 Average     10.881
2006 Average     10.883
2007 Average     10.756
2008 Average     10.340
2009 Average — prepare for a new era

-Gregor

Image: Herman Moll c. 1720,  A New Map of the North Parts of America

Further Reading: IEA Sees Massive Fall at Mexico’s Cantarell Oil Field in 2009

• Comments
Author: Gregor Macdonald   Posted in: Debt  IEA  NG  Oil  non-OPEC   Tagged:      
  • Blair Rogers
    Yeah mid to low 9000.
    A shocker would be high 8000's
  • gregor.us
    Hi Blair,

    Spring has sprung here in the Valley. It's probably warm enough for Kim and Thurston to play with the barn doors open.

    I had a long conversation with a fellow oil analyst in San Francisco on Friday. We think that the numbers coming out of Mexico by 2H 2009 could be truly shocking. US production is getting a boost from BP's Thunderhorse, back on stream in the Gulf--but what's about to hit are the aggregate losses from the collapse of drilling.

    Canada meanwhile has stalled out. No suprise at current prices (though the oil price is decent in $CAD).

    G
  • Blair Rogers
    Spring there - definitely Autumn here. Quite a nip in the air now.

    Thanks for that link - clicking on the next post link produces a cool poster of another cool band. They have great live shows as well. http://bit.ly/JWnil

    Yes the Mexico situation is rarely fascinating - yet when I mention it to people here in liddle ol Noo Zild - the look of blankness is almost as staggering. Never mind

    Thanks for NYT link - my brother will be interested in that.

    Canada sitting pretty - no point digging/processing oilsands at this price. SIt back and wait for price to get well past $100 again. Money for jam.
  • The combination of price action, and dwindling supplies, we could see a number in the low 9,000 range...

    ...such and exciting time to be watching.

    Will be amazing, to see a number in the 9000 range for 2009 and 2010, then price sky-rockets to allow some supply to come back, and see the number tick up (however slightly that tick may be).
  • gregor.us
    Stay tuned. The good news is that N.A. has decent NG reserves. At higher prices of course. But a paradigm of 12 dollar NG will make N.A. NG look great when oil is ensconced, back above 100.
  • db
    You guys are dreaming. US will be up more than Mexico will be down, and CA up. Net up. Bet? agreed sources....Pemex, EIA, and ? for CA. I'll take >10.340 for 2009
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