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This month’s publication, Energy Investment Outlook, examines our twenty year energy transition, which appears set to run from 2003-2023. Each phase of this energy transition is associated with a distinct level of global GDP, and this month’s issue forecasts a surprising growth burst that will unfold as the transition to the powergrid finally gains traction. We have now moved into the second half of this transition. Energy Investment Outlook reviews each of the primary energy sources: coal, oil, natural gas, and renewables, and considers their prospects as we move towards decade’s end.
We remain squarely in the third phase of energy transition, patiently (and frustratingly) awaiting the breakout to phase four. In order to make the breakout, OECD populations will have to go back to work, and enjoy normal wage growth. Equally, the Non-OECD will have to return to its higher levels of growth, seen before the crisis began. But higher levels of growth in the developing world is not sufficient, alone, to trigger the fourth phase of energy transition. Such a condition merely leaves the OECD stagnant, and looking to “rent” growth in the Non-OECD, by deploying capital overseas. For the world to grow at the TerraJoule.us projected rate of 4.95%, in the 2018-2023 period, the developed world has to grow organically again. How will this happen?
The October issue also discusses the performance of the Model Portfolio, as the Third Quarter finishes, and we look ahead so a seasonal low in oil prices:
The model portfolio is currently up +1.60%. In particular, it’s encouraging to see GRID (+2.24%) and JXI (+5.44%) doing well, as together they represent the core macro theme of TerraJoule.us: the global transition to the powergrid. Meanwhile, oil and gas ETFs like PXJ and IXC have performed as expected in a volatile period for oil prices, which has seen several spikes to the upside on geo-political newsflow. However, seasonality is about to trump the noise, as oil prices sink back towards $100. We can now expect a more typical, seasonal low in oil prices in late November.
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