Comments on: Less Than Zero? http://gregor.us/oil/less-than-zero/ Energy and Economics Sun, 14 Mar 2010 00:33:48 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: gregor.us http://gregor.us/oil/less-than-zero/comment-page-1/#comment-3792 gregor.us Wed, 08 Oct 2008 22:49:12 +0000 http://gregor.us/?p=118#comment-3792 I agree with you that in a time of liquidation, no rules apply. But today's action in things like FCX and XTO was telling, as was the action in the gold equities. (I don't own gold equities as a personal rule--but I do watch them as a sign for the reflation trade). My view is that many energy equities already discount oil at 50.00. And nearly all discount oil at 60.00.<br><br>You might be interested to know that XTO AH filings today indicate some significant insider buying.<br><br>Also, I have a new post up today, on coal. I intend to be talking more about coal and renewables in the days ahead. I agree with you that in a time of liquidation, no rules apply. But today's action in things like FCX and XTO was telling, as was the action in the gold equities. (I don't own gold equities as a personal rule–but I do watch them as a sign for the reflation trade). My view is that many energy equities already discount oil at 50.00. And nearly all discount oil at 60.00.

You might be interested to know that XTO AH filings today indicate some significant insider buying.

Also, I have a new post up today, on coal. I intend to be talking more about coal and renewables in the days ahead.

]]> By: gregordotus http://gregor.us/oil/less-than-zero/comment-page-1/#comment-40 gregordotus Wed, 08 Oct 2008 19:49:12 +0000 http://gregor.us/?p=118#comment-40 I agree with you that in a time of liquidation, no rules apply. But today's action in things like FCX and XTO was telling, as was the action in the gold equities. (I don't own gold equities as a personal rule--but I do watch them as a sign for the reflation trade). My view is that many energy equities already discount oil at 50.00. And nearly all discount oil at 60.00.<br><br>You might be interested to know that XTO AH filings today indicate some significant insider buying.<br><br>Also, I have a new post up today, on coal. I intend to be talking more about coal and renewables in the days ahead. I agree with you that in a time of liquidation, no rules apply. But today's action in things like FCX and XTO was telling, as was the action in the gold equities. (I don't own gold equities as a personal rule–but I do watch them as a sign for the reflation trade). My view is that many energy equities already discount oil at 50.00. And nearly all discount oil at 60.00.

You might be interested to know that XTO AH filings today indicate some significant insider buying.

Also, I have a new post up today, on coal. I intend to be talking more about coal and renewables in the days ahead.

]]> By: marketfolly http://gregor.us/oil/less-than-zero/comment-page-1/#comment-38 marketfolly Wed, 08 Oct 2008 12:18:04 +0000 http://gregor.us/?p=118#comment-38 first off, congrats on the blog (re)launch. been meaning to comment.<br><br>i think its honestly very tough to answer your question just due to the volatility and deleveraging we're seeing. i think many people are underestimating just how severe and prolonged that the hedge fund redemption/liquidation process will be. their numbers are bad... horrible in september. numerous funds have lost money and can't make money next year essentially due to their horrid performance so they'll close up shop. (i've been tracking the whole situation on my blog).<br><br>and, numerous funds i track have/had very heavily weighted positions in energy equities (we're talking top 10 portfolio positions). the relentless selling in these names is undoubtedly forced selling from these funds puking everything up.<br><br>the question is, when do they stop? how many funds will still implode? we have no idea.<br><br>while i completely agree with you that energy equities are ridiculously cheap here, that does not mean they can't get even cheaper. markets stay irrational longer than people can stay solvent. i can throw out all kinds of cliches but you get the picture. i don't think this stops until the hedge funds stop puking. after all, they control so much of the capital these days and there are so many other funds "front running" each other, shorting each other's top holdings. its a stampede to the exits and we have no control over that.<br><br>curious though, as to which equities you have had your eye on in this mess? OXY as you've mentioned I'm a fan of as well and have been in and out of the name in the past as you. (Big hedge fund concentration in there though). RIG and SU I like as well (I seem to recall you "twittering" you picked up some canadian oil sands trust a little bit ago). Natgas there's the obvious players of CHK and XTO. How about coal or power generation/electricity plays? I've just started doing more in depth research on those to select how I want to play that. Would love to hear your thoughts. first off, congrats on the blog (re)launch. been meaning to comment.

i think its honestly very tough to answer your question just due to the volatility and deleveraging we're seeing. i think many people are underestimating just how severe and prolonged that the hedge fund redemption/liquidation process will be. their numbers are bad… horrible in september. numerous funds have lost money and can't make money next year essentially due to their horrid performance so they'll close up shop. (i've been tracking the whole situation on my blog).

and, numerous funds i track have/had very heavily weighted positions in energy equities (we're talking top 10 portfolio positions). the relentless selling in these names is undoubtedly forced selling from these funds puking everything up.

the question is, when do they stop? how many funds will still implode? we have no idea.

while i completely agree with you that energy equities are ridiculously cheap here, that does not mean they can't get even cheaper. markets stay irrational longer than people can stay solvent. i can throw out all kinds of cliches but you get the picture. i don't think this stops until the hedge funds stop puking. after all, they control so much of the capital these days and there are so many other funds “front running” each other, shorting each other's top holdings. its a stampede to the exits and we have no control over that.

curious though, as to which equities you have had your eye on in this mess? OXY as you've mentioned I'm a fan of as well and have been in and out of the name in the past as you. (Big hedge fund concentration in there though). RIG and SU I like as well (I seem to recall you “twittering” you picked up some canadian oil sands trust a little bit ago). Natgas there's the obvious players of CHK and XTO. How about coal or power generation/electricity plays? I've just started doing more in depth research on those to select how I want to play that. Would love to hear your thoughts.

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