In October of 2009, for which EIA Washington just supplied the latest data, Non-OPEC crude oil production soared by over 500 kbpd, going from 41.567 mbpd to 42.109 mbpd. This is the first time since the Spring of 2007 that Non-OPEC hit a single month’s production level at/above 42 mbpd. (Nota Bene: all data has been backward adjusted for the additions/subtractions to OPEC/Non-OPEC: Indonesia, as one example).
While recently there has been much focus on Russia’s ability to grow production, the two regions most responsible for October’s single month advance were The North Sea, and Canada. Readers should note that “The North Sea” is a composite region that brings together the following: United Kingdom Offshore, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands Offshore, and Germany Offshore. This region added a little more than 300 kbpd in October, and Canada added 200 kbpd. These additions caused overall Global crude oil supply production to advance from 72.529 mbpd to 73.121 mbpd.
The October data arrived yesterday from EIA Washington with extensive revisions to global supply reaching as far back as November of 2005. Generally, previous years were revised slightly higher in yesterday’s data release. My comment: this is a reversal of about an 18 month trend in which trailing data was continually revised lower. As for the one month upside surprise from The North Sea and Canada, I would point out that both regions in the past 12 months have produced either 1) lots of volatility in actual production, or 2) volatility in data reporting, and in particular from Canada.. Hey listen up: if you’re handling Canada data, we need less noise!