Non-OPEC Production Soars in Latest EIA Data

In October of 2009, for which EIA Washington just supplied the latest data, Non-OPEC crude oil production soared by over 500 kbpd, going from 41.567 mbpd to 42.109 mbpd. This is the first time since the Spring of 2007 that Non-OPEC hit a single month’s production level at/above 42 mbpd. (Nota Bene: all data has been backward adjusted for the additions/subtractions to OPEC/Non-OPEC: Indonesia, as one example).

While recently there has been much focus on Russia’s ability to grow production, the two regions most responsible for October’s single month advance were The North Sea, and Canada. Readers should note that “The North Sea” is a composite region that brings together the following: United Kingdom Offshore, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands Offshore, and Germany Offshore. This region added a little more than 300 kbpd in October, and Canada added 200 kbpd. These additions caused overall Global crude oil supply production to advance from 72.529 mbpd to 73.121 mbpd.

The October data arrived yesterday from EIA Washington with extensive revisions to global supply reaching as far back as November of 2005. Generally, previous years were revised slightly higher in yesterday’s data release. My comment: this is a reversal of about an 18 month trend in which trailing data was continually revised lower. As for the one month upside surprise from The North Sea and Canada, I would point out that both regions in the past 12 months have produced either 1) lots of volatility in actual production, or 2) volatility in data reporting, and in particular from Canada.. Hey listen up: if you’re handling Canada data, we need less noise!

-Gregor

Charts: via www.gregor.us using data from EIA Washington IPM Monthly updated 11 January 2009.

  • cougar_w

    Adjusting up? Now isn't that interesting. Just when the P-O discussion is getting some traction too. Curiouser and curiouser…

    I don't know about you, but I wonder if someone at the EIA is taking a page from the US BLS play book; report the numbers you want everyone to us in planning, and then quietly revise them down much later when nobody is watching. EIA were a little late to the game so they just go ahead and revise 18 months worth to catch up. See? Problem solved.

    And we go a little further down the rabbit hole each day.

    cougar

  • cougar_w

    Adjusting up? Now isn't that interesting. Just when the P-O discussion is getting some traction too. Curiouser and curiouser…

    I don't know about you, but I wonder if someone at the EIA is taking a page from the US BLS play book; report the numbers you want everyone to us in planning, and then quietly revise them down much later when nobody is watching. EIA were a little late to the game so they just go ahead and revise 18 months worth to catch up. See? Problem solved.

    And we go a little further down the rabbit hole each day.

    cougar