Comments on: Oil Could Be Next

By: Georealist

Georealist — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 03:48:58 +0000

This is..and I believe it's actually quite a distinction..the most self indulgent masturbatory website I've seen! Congrats..I didn't think it was possible for Alphabits to print articles more inane than those of the past..but you receive the total jackoff award!!!!

By: Georealist

Georealist — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 23:48:58 +0000

By: chip Feiss

chip Feiss — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 19:51:06 +0000

Thanks– I am new to this but had come to the same conclusion regarding ETFs .

By: gregor.us

gregor.us — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 16:47:38 +0000

Hi,

On my blog and in my newsletter, I generally avoid giving specific investment advice. However, as a general theme, I regard Canadian oil supply as geographically and politically secure on a relative basis. And, you'll find that most of the Canadian oil and gas companies trade in NY. So, over time, I have pointed people to that space as a vehicle. Of course, Canadian oil and gas cos are indeed "equities". And we have seen that all equities can at any time be taken out and shot. Meanwhile, oil ETFs have myriad problems relating to the vagaries of having an ETF that tries to hold a basket of futures contracts.

Find low debt, high cash oil and gas companies in Canada, and favor the larger cap ones. That's what I do.

G

By: chip Feiss

chip Feiss — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 16:29:36 +0000

Gregor–I find what you say very interesting and something I hadn't thought off.
My question is if you want to take a long term position in oil–what would you buy?

Thanks,
Chip

By: GloomBoom

GloomBoom — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 00:21:29 +0000

I agree Gregor. Supply and demand are the critical factors now. However if something happens between Iran and Israel or something big elsewhere, look out. War with Iran would impact supply but would add a strong premium too.

By: geckoman

geckoman — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 23:40:51 +0000

Any preferences on best ways to huge a game plan? For instance buying the amount of gas you would use in a year (say $2,000) in USO. The price goes down you win at the pump, the price of oilmgoes up you win in your account. I know it's not a 1:1 ratio but is that line of thinking reasonable?

By: Jeff Burton

Jeff Burton — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 22:53:34 +0000

Thanks for your blog. I appreciate your expertise. I concur in your opinion (though I have nothing to offer in the way of credentials). Please keep up your work.

By: gregor.us

gregor.us — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 19:11:45 +0000

Thanks Gregory. Well, I eat, sleep, and drink oil and energy stuff and have done so this decade. But it's a Socratic experience because as the knowledge builds up on one side, the awareness of of surprise builds on the other.

Oil is interesting on many levels. Here is one: oil is such concentrated energy in transportable form, that in small amounts it performs a large quantity of labor. That means that when oil is plentiful, the amount of available labor that oil performs goes into mega-surplus. But when oil is tight, it's labor "force" becomes powerful through scarcity. Hence, we see this exaggeration reflected in the price--which is an imperfect measurement.

Cheers,

G

By: gregorylent

gregorylent — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 18:53:53 +0000

upside of high price, innovation, alternatives .... downside of high price, "enemies" more powerful ... plus many others ....

upside of low, downside of low .... etc.

soooooooo many variables in this oil/energy dance ....

don't know how you do it ...

intuition, i think

thanks for great tweets

gregory lent