Indonesia originally joined OPEC in 1962. But in 2005 when Indonesia’s oil production finally fell below domestic demand, the archipelago was no longer an oil exporter. And that led to the decision to let OPEC membership expire at the end of last year. As a result, for January 2009 data now just starting to come through from EIA Washington, IEA Paris and OPEC, Indonesia has returned to the non-OPEC category.
Indonesia was not the only country this decade to devolve from net oil exporter, to net oil importer. The UK crossed this threshold starting in late 2004. And Argentina is now thought to be close as well. The top country now on most people’s importer/exporter watchlist remains Mexico. While Matt Simmons has said Mexico’s exports could get close to zero within one year, I have marked late 2011 as the time when Mexico’s pivot will make the front page.
For the announcement on how EIA Washington will handle the data change, click here. For the IEA Paris announcement, click here. My take is that generally people will talk about the current OPEC cutting cycle and also non-OPEC supply falls by moving Indonesia in, and out, like a puzzle piece so that observers can more easily make comparisons as we come down off the mountain of last year’s global oil production highs, last July. As Indonesia is currently producing just a fraction under 1 Mb/day, that should make for an easy object to include and disclude in any discussion.
-Gregor
Photo: Borobudur, by Jill Gocher/Getty Images for National Geographic.