For those of you tracking the fortunes (or misfortunes) of Rail this week in the Stimulus Package, some resolution arrived last night. House and Senate negotiators brought the bill to its final form. And this is what I’ve learned. First, the attempt to knock Rail spending down from 13B below 10B was not successful. Good news. Second, a new chunk of money appeared suddenly for High-Speed Rail. 8 billion dollars worth. Sounds like good news. But where did this come from? And why?
The chatter overnight is that Harry Reid, Senate Majority leader from Nevada, was able to secure this new item. The reason: he and his constituents have had their eye for some time on a Las Vegas-Los Angeles high-speed rail line.
I’m not really for high-speed rail, and I’m not against it either. High-speed rail just happens to be low on my rail hierarchy, which starts with Commuter Rail, then Light Rail, then Heavy Rail, and finally High-Speed Rail. My reasoning is simple: the efficacy of rail investment is measured in how many car trips can be wiped out by each new line. In addition, there is a multiplier effect on other motorists who will spend less time on the road as a result of de-congestion. The value proposition of rail therefore is to capture productivity along the entire energy-time spectrum. This is usually best done in cities.
How would a Las Vegas to Los Angeles high-speed rail line measure up, in this regard? In my conversations with fellow Twitterers yesterday, Stuart MacDonald of Tripharbour.ca in Toronto pointed out that Las Vegas to Los Angeles is one of the busiest, if not the busiest leisure travel route in the United States. Assuming that’s the case, this would mean an enormous amount of auto and air trips are made each week on this route. (less so in a recession, obviously.)
My guess is going to be that, despite the heavy traffic on the Las Vegas to Los Angeles corridor, the five cities I’ve identified previously, Seattle, SF Bay, LA-Orange-SD Counties, Dallas-Ft Worth, and Miami, would be able to capture greater annual economic value were they hit with new Commuter and Light Rail lines. In addition, it’s very difficult to see the merit in LA-LV high-speed rail before SD-LA-SF high-speed, East Coast high-speed, or high-speed that comes out of Chicago and goes either to St Louis, or east to either New York or Washington. That said, there is a ton of heavy lifting to be done here with data. Data, however that does not seem readily available.
It appears the nation is going to have to produce a greater quantity of transportation economists, and analysts, on the way to any meaningful transition (back) to passenger rail. I welcome any data readers can supply on key automobile routes such as LA-SF and LA-LV.
-Gregor
Upate: 18 February 2009 High-Speed Rail Corridor Designations from the Federal Railroad Administration.
